Scenario & Sensitivity
Demo #4 — Base / Upside / Downside operating drivers for Sava Industrial, DCF valuation impact, WACC × terminal-g data table, and tornado ranking (±0.01 on WACC and g; wider bands on growth and margin).
Training scope
Manufacturing template only; fictional Sava Industrial FY2023A base. Scenario WACC overrides match the Excel Scenarios tab. Engine outputs align with Demo #2 FCF build — not a fairness opinion or live market view.
Scenario comparison (FY2028E & DCF)
Side-by-side Base, Upside, and Downside — same driver set as the Excel 3-Statement Summary and DCF Impact sheets.
| Metric | Base | Upside | Downside |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue FY2028E | 612.6 | 673.2 | 543.0 |
| EBITDA FY2028E | 140.9 | 181.8 | 97.7 |
| EBITDA margin | 23.0% | 27.0% | 18.0% |
| Net income FY2028E | 77.2 | 107.4 | 45.5 |
| EPS FY2028E | 1.93 | 2.68 | 1.14 |
| WACC | 9.0% | 9.0% | 11.0% |
| Terminal growth (g) | 2.5% | 3.0% | 1.5% |
| Enterprise value | 859.4 | 1,415.3 | 423.0 |
| Equity value | 914.4 | 1,470.3 | 478.0 |
| Implied share price | 22.86 | 36.76 | 11.95 |
| EV / EBITDA | 6.1× | 7.8× | 4.3× |
Data table — Enterprise value ($M): WACC vs terminal g
Base operating case (Base scenario unlevered FCF); Gordon growth terminal value — mirrors Excel Data Tables sheet Table 1.
| WACC \ g | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.5% | 1,012 | 1,088 | 1,180 | 1,291 | 1,430 | 1,609 | 1,848 |
| 8.0% | 932 | 995 | 1,070 | 1,159 | 1,268 | 1,405 | 1,581 |
| 8.5% | 863 | 916 | 978 | 1,051 | 1,139 | 1,246 | 1,381 |
| 9.3% | 771 | 812 | 859 | 914 | 978 | 1,055 | 1,147 |
| 9.5% | 751 | 790 | 834 | 885 | 945 | 1,016 | 1,100 |
| 10.0% | 705 | 738 | 777 | 820 | 870 | 929 | 998 |
| 10.5% | 664 | 693 | 726 | 764 | 807 | 856 | 913 |
Tornado — EV sensitivity
One-way low / base / high per driver; ranked by spread. WACC and terminal g use ±0.01 vs Base scenario assumptions.
| Driver | Low case EV ($M) | Base EV ($M) | High case EV ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA margin | 676 | 859 | 1,042 |
| WACC | 1,013 | 859 | 746 |
| COGS % of revenue | 737 | 859 | 981 |
| Terminal growth (g) | 771 | 859 | 978 |
| CapEx % of revenue | 784 | 859 | 935 |
| Avg revenue growth | 828 | 859 | 891 |
Deep-dive single-scenario DCF and 3-statement forecast: Manufacturing simulator (Demo #2)